What role did commitment problems play in triggering the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine? This paper applies the logic of commitment problems—a concept in crisis bargaining—to understand the motivations and decision-making processes that led to the conflict. It argues that the anticipated shift in power dynamics between Russia and Ukraine created a bargaining failure, driving both countries towards war. The research also examines how NATO's role in the conflict fits within the commitment problem framework, offering a nuanced perspective on existing arguments. The study analyzes Ukrainian and Russian decision-making in the lead-up to the invasion through the lens of commitment problems. It suggests that a declining state may choose to fight from a position of strength in the present rather than negotiate from a position of weakness in the future. This logic is used to explain both Ukrainian and Russian actions. This analysis provides insight into the complex dynamics that fueled the Russian invasion of Ukraine, offering a theoretical framework for understanding the conflict. It also challenges simplistic narratives about NATO's role, contributing to a more informed understanding of the conflict's origins and potential pathways to resolution.
As a publication in Conflict Management and Peace Science, this article fits directly within the journal's scope. By applying game-theoretic models to analyze the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the research contributes to the field's understanding of conflict dynamics and potential pathways to peace.