What role did domestic politics play in Russia's decision to invade Ukraine in 2022? This research explores the factors influencing the initiation of interstate wars, specifically focusing on the case of Russia's invasion. It challenges prominent theories that suggest domestic constraints reduce the likelihood of conflict, arguing that Putin's regime structure rendered these concerns less relevant. The study suggests that the invasion was not driven by domestic power shifts but rather by Putin's perception of Ukraine's resolve and expectations of pro-Russia shifts in Ukrainian domestic politics. The research considers evidence that fighting was unlikely to shift the domestic distribution of power favorably for Putin, although invading stood to enrich certain domestic groups and Putin himself. This analysis provides insights into the complex interplay of domestic and international factors that influence decisions to initiate war. It contributes to the broader understanding of crisis bargaining and the dynamics of conflict in the context of authoritarian regimes.
Published in Conflict Management and Peace Science, this article is relevant to the journal's focus on understanding the causes and dynamics of conflict and promoting peace. By examining the factors influencing Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the study contributes to the field of conflict management and provides insights into the complex relationship between domestic politics and international conflict.