Are we truly in the age of “second generation” computers? This article offers a historical perspective on the evolution of computing, arguing that we're only just seeing the maturation of first-generation machines. The author revisits the aims and objectives outlined by John von Neumann in 1946-7 for the logical and physical design of computing machines. The author looks at where it was hoped computers would be by now. The von Neumann machine envisioned a 40-bit addition or subtraction taking about 10 microseconds. At the time of writing, no commercially available machine in the author's country achieved this speed. This commentary challenges prevailing notions of technological progress. Ultimately, the article encourages a more critical assessment of advancements in computer technology, urging readers to consider the ambitious goals set forth by pioneers like von Neumann and to recognize that truly revolutionary progress may still lie ahead.
Published in Communications of the ACM, this commentary on the future of digital computers aligns with the journal's focus on emerging trends and challenges in computer science. The author's perspective on progress in the field is of interest to a broad audience of professionals and researchers.