Do second-place candidates always fare better in future elections? Challenging a recent finding, this research reveals substantial heterogeneity in the 'runner-up effect' based on party affiliation. The study shows that only runner-ups *without* major party backing demonstrate significant prospects over third-place candidates in subsequent elections, both in terms of recontesting and winning. This insight suggests that political parties and voters strategically coordinate on runner-ups, also considering party backing as a signal of intrinsic quality. The research contributes to a nuanced understanding of electoral dynamics, indicating that party affiliation plays a crucial role in a candidate's future success. Ultimately, the findings indicate that only candidates without a major party backing in election have significant prospects over the third‐place candidates in election , in terms of either recontesting or winning.
Published in the Journal of Applied Econometrics, this research fits squarely within the journal's focus on economics as a science. By employing econometric techniques to analyze electoral outcomes, the study aligns with the journal's emphasis on rigorous quantitative analysis. The paper's findings contribute to understanding the complex factors influencing election results and electoral behavior.