Predicting India's monsoon: Can pre-monsoon temperatures offer a reliable forecast? This study explores the relationship between pre-monsoon upper-air temperatures over India and the subsequent all-India monsoon rainfall, aiming to develop a forecasting model. The Indian monsoon is a vital weather phenomenon that influences agriculture and the economy, making accurate predictions essential. The authors analyzed 30 years of pre-monsoon upper-air mean temperatures (1959-1988) at stations across India. The research identifies the importance of Nagpur temperatures at 850 and 700 hPa during the pre-monsoon season. Two sets of regression equations, one using April temperatures and the other using May temperatures, were fitted using independent predictors. The equations were then tested for a two-year period (1989-1990). The study demonstrates the potential of using pre-monsoon temperatures to forecast all-India monsoon rainfall. While further validation and refinement are needed, the findings provide a valuable tool for anticipating monsoon patterns and mitigating their impact on various sectors.
A forecasting of Indian southwest monsoon rainfall is well suited for Meteorological Applications, which focuses on the practical application of meteorology to real-world problems. The development of regression equations to forecast monsoon rainfall aligns with the journal's goal of improving weather prediction and its relevance to various sectors.
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| Science: Physics: Meteorology. Climatology | 3 |
| Science: Geology | 3 |